The votes haven’t been fully tallied up yet, but Joe Biden is clearly looking to become the big winner.
Bernie Sanders earning a majority of votes to avoid a brokered convention is out of the question (and probably a mathematical impossibility), but he may still be able to pull off a plurality. Unfortunately for Bernie, a plurality is good enough for Joe, but not for him. If Joe gets a plurality, we’ll go to the brokered convention, the super delegates pick Joe, and Joe wins. If Bernie gets a plurality, we’ll go to the brokered convention, the super delegates pick Joe, and Joe wins. Bernie’s only guaranteed path to President is with a majority, but that’s not in the cards.
I think this Super Tuesday has less decisively determined the primary winner than in 2016 though. I think Bernie still has a chance at beating Joe in actual votes and delegates count, especially since we don’t know California’s numbers yet.
There should have been a debate scheduled between Super Tuesday and the next big primary day, March 10, where six states will be voting. But there won’t be another debate until March 15. Seems like an oversight by the DNC. I’ll chalk this one up to incompetent calculus rather than clever Machiavellian scheming.
As expected, Bloomberg has been a spoiler for Joe and Elizabeth Warren has been a spoiler for Bernie. Luckily, Bloomberg has been a larger nuisance than Liz. Bloomberg will be his own worst enemy if he doesn’t drop out and get behind Joe; he joined the race only to ensure Bernie did not become President.
Liz has performed very poorly tonight, further cementing her unviability. She’s even taking third place in Massachusetts, her home state! (Disturbingly, it wasn’t Bernie that took the lead in the state, but Biden.) I’m curious about her strategy going forward.